Pulling out the crystal ball, hey? “Danger Will Robinson!” I hate one-year predictions. Hero? Or zero? That said … here are my punts.
Shares: With shares stagnant at levels of five years ago, it feels like they are ready for a canter. (But I would have said that last year too – zero!). Stay diversified. The miners could do anything this year, but they are dependent on China’s health.
Property: Further falls in residential seem likely, which could mean good long-term buying opportunities. Commercial property is still wa-a-a-y off its highs and is due for a comeback, following negative total returns for five and seven years.
Cash: Interest rates are almost certainly on the way up. The best cash returns, as always, will be via an offset/redraw account. You’ll get a guaranteed, tax-free return of 7.5-8 per cent for the coming year.
Fixed interest/bonds: Successful ball-gazers from five years ago would have only put their money here. But the previous five years were awful.
I’m a bit counter-cyclical in my investing – I’ll stay heavily weighted to property and shares, even if the next year (or two or three) is a bit bumpy.
As Xers have time on their hands, they should take a long-term view, not just 12 months. Keep some cash handy, but long-term investments should be as highly directed towards shares and property as you can stand.
Guaranteed, there will be some bad years – and the next 12 months might indeed be that – but unless you have a crystal ball that works, you’ve got to believe in the better longer-term returns of property and shares.
Bruce Brammall is the author of Debt Man Walking (www.debtman.com.au) and a licensed financial adviser.
