(03) 9020 2905In the next 12 months, a Brazilian transexual will win Eurovision, Tanzania’s swim team will scoop the pool in London, I will make the next Who magazine’s “sexiest people” list … and the world’s financial markets will get a freakin’ grip on it and come to their senses.
The first three have a chance of “absolute zero”, which is to say –273.15 on a scale of 0 to 10.
The last is theoretically possible – slightly better than a “snowflake chances in hell”. Maybe Lucifer occasionally runs out of firewood?
For financial markets to recover, Europe may need to boot Greece to the dogs. Or the Greeks have to accept paying their taxes and “austerity” measures. Other Euro-zone countries may also need to swallow bitter pills.
Closer to home, China is slowing down. But unless it starts reversing, Australia will still progressively dig up and ship Western Australia to it.
Australia’s share market is panicking because … that’s all it has known for five years. It’s caught in a perpetual negative loop. Personally, I think it’s undervalued. And I’m placing bets there.
And our dollar needs to fall back below US80c for exporters and tourism sectors.
As of now, Australia is not about to implode. Our soft property market will fall further, but isn’t going to do a US-style swan dive into an empty concrete pool.
The RBA cuts rates when it’s concerned. There’s probably one or two more cuts to come.
The world is as pessimistic as George Costanza on a handful of downers. However, my glass is half full. Cheer up.
Bruce Brammall is the author of Debt Man Walking (www.debtman.com.au) and principal adviser with Castellan Financial Consulting.