One month into the new financial year, what’s your prediction for the sharemarket in the short and long term?

“Ah, young grasshopper,” said Miyagi to Daniel-san, “you all wet behind ear.”

Actually, I’m mixing my Karate Kid with my Kung Fu. But at least they’re both martial arts movies, so you get what I mean.

You want a short-term sharemarket prediction? Then you need to meet Senor Bubbles. He’s our family pet monkey, named after Michael Jackson’s ape.

I’ve taught Bubbles how to throw darts at a board, modified as a sharemarket prediction tool. And, hey, Bubbles gets it right about half the time.

I know. That’s a bit flippant.

But short-term share market predictions are predominantly for those who are a little wet behind the ears, like throwing darts at dartboards, or picking red or black at the casino.

Share markets are not a short-term plaything. To win in that game, you require luck. Everybody who is playing in the market – including professional fund managers – only predict correctly about half the time.

So, with that lengthy disclaimer, my one-year prediction is that we’ll finally see the market break back above the 5000 barrier. But this time, it will stay there.

We’ve just had an awesome year. Things are still skittish and will probably continue that way for a bit longer. I think there’s value in the market overall.

Long-term predictions are a different matter. If your horizon is long enough, which Gen Xers should have, then stocks (and property) are the right place to be. At least for your long-term investments.

In 10 years, the ASX200 should be closer to 7000-8000 points, plus a great wad of dividends along the way.

Bruce Brammall is the author of Debt Man Walking (www.debtman.com.au) and principal adviser with Castellan Financial Consulting.